Author

Brian Lincoln

Published

May 13, 2025

[Interpretation] Current NFL GM Ranks (April 2025)

Figure 1: 2025 Rating Dimensions Used For Composite Score

Review the Methodology

We rank the current NFL GMs going into the 2025 NFL season. Using the eligibility requirements detailed in the ranks methodology post there are 23 GMs:

Excluding the newly dismissed GM group excludes Trent Baalke of the Jaguars, Ron Carthon of the Titans, Joe Douglas of the Jets, and Tom Telesco of the Raiders. (Interesting that Baalke and Telesco were the GM of two different teams in our data window.)
The minimum tenure qualification means a front office would’ve drafted in April 2022, 2023, and 2024. Excluding the nascent GM group excludes Joe Hortiz from the Chargers, Dan Morgan from the Panthers, Monti Ossenfort from the Cardinals, Adam Peters from the Commanders, and Eliot Wolf from the Patriots. Omar Kahn from the Steelers is also exluded because he was not GM until after the 2022 draft.
The data window is 2014-2024. This allows for a maximum 11-year track record. Some portions of track record are excluded from the senior GM group. Mike Brown has been the owner and GM of the Bengals since 1991. Jerry Jones has been the owner and GM of the Cowboys since 1989 (but he didn’t fire Jimmy Johnson until 1994). Additionally, Mickley Loomis has been the GM of the Saints since 2002, John Schnieder has been the GM of the Seahawks since 2010 (but Pete Carrol wasn’t fired until 2024), and Les Snead has been the GM of the Rams since 2012. Howie Roseman is a special case because of the Chip Kelly blip, which is addressed below.

To review, we rank on two scores:

Homegrown Picks Percentage. Homegrown Picks showed that the percentage of snaps taken by players drafted by that organization is fully related to team success. This percentage is calculated by summing all snaps in a team’s season taken by homegrown picks, players drafted elsewhere, and undrafted players. Each sum is divided by the total number of snaps available for three respective percentages.
Winning Efficiency. Homegrown Picks also set up a linear model where winning percentage is the response variable to homegrown picks. A GM’s homegrown picks percentage is fed into this trained model for a predicted winning percentage. We subtract the prediction from actual winning percentage. The idea here is to suss talented team builders that have team success without draft success and/or untalented team builders that simply play their picks as a matter of policy.

We equal-weight these two scores for a composite score.

See the Ranks

Eric DeCosta, Ravens
Brian Gutekunst, Packers
Brett Veach, Chiefs
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, Vikings
John Schneider, Seahawks
Jerry Jones, Cowboys
Howie Roseman, Eagles
Brad Holmes, Lions
Mike Brown, Bengals
Brandon Beane, Bills
Les Snead, Rams
John Lynch, 49ers
Mickey Loomis, Saints
Chris Ballard, Colts
Jason Licht, Buccaneers
Chris Grier, Dolphins
Terry Fontenot, Falcons
Andrew Berry, Browns
Joe Schoen, Giants
George Paton, Broncos
Nick Caserio, Texans
Ryan Poles, Bears

Fired: Trent Baalke of the Jaguars, Ron Carthon of the Titans, Joe Douglas of the Jets, and Tom Telesco of the Raiders. Under minimum tenure qualification: Joe Hortiz from the Chargers, Dan Morgan from the Panthers, Monti Ossenfort from the Cardinals, Adam Peters from the Commanders, and Eliot Wolf from the Patriots. Omar Kahn from the Steelers is also exluded because he was not GM until after the 2022 draft.

Cohort A: Expertise

	GM Team	Homegrown Picks Rank	Efficiency Rank	Composite Rank
GM Name
Eric DeCosta	Ravens	4	4	1
Brian Gutekunst	Packers	3	9	2
Brett Veach	Chiefs	14	1	3

Quarterbacks doing a lot of work here. There are as-good or at least same-tier QBs farther down the rankings. NFL teams with elite QBs will always rate high in this (or any other) methodology because perennial winners pay less for free agent talent (thus lower homegrown picks percentage) and freak quarterbacks truly do win more games with less (and thus an outsized efficiency rating).

1. Ravens, Eric DeCosta

The Ravens drafted Lamar Jackson in April 2018. Ozzie Newsome departed at the end of the season and DeCosta became GM. A narrative exists that DeCosta heavily influenced the decision to get back into the first round and draft Jackson. It has made all the difference. DeCosta is ranked 1 because he rates high in both ranking criteria: he gets the fourth most contribution from his homegrown picks and that contribution is the fourth most efficient. In other words, his draft picks get snaps and they add value in the form of wins. We will see other teams appear to play its draft picks as a matter of principle, but can’t win anything. There may be some bad playoff performances and zero Lombardis during DeCosta’s tenure, but the Ravens are perennial contenders and sometimes that’s all you can ask.

2. Packers, Brian Gutekunst (with Mark Murphy)

The 2021 Aaron Rogers dramedy revealed much of the Packers inner workings. The narrative emerged in full detail that Murphy dictates the approach to his general manager. And that Murphy’s front office prefers its players to be seen and not heard. Packers have historically done the cry poverty thing because Green Bay is like an all-includive in Tulum and not a major market. Murphy generally doesn’t augment the roster with trades and free agency. This is only truly assailable when a team has elite QB talent, which the Packers have had through nearly all of Murphy’s tenure. However, the winning record is unassailable. And the Packers do draft well. Additionally, the current front office hired Matt LaFleur in 2019. LaFleur has won games with and without Rogers and appears to have developed Jordan Love.

3. Chiefs, Brett Veach (with Andy Reid)

Like DeCosta, there exists a narrative that as an apprentice Veach was instrumental in drafting the current quarterback. John Dorsey was hired as GM in January 2013 and fired in July 2017. The Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes in April 2017. Veach was GM-by-name that same month. By the time Patrick Mahomes annihilated the Broncos in his first start in a meaningless 2017 week 17 game in Denver, the verdict was so in. The ketchup- and mustard-colored Chiefs rank 14 in contributions from homegrown picks because they don’t need anything more. When you have Mahomes you almost always win. Accordingly, the Chiefs efficiency rating will always be frothy. As per most quantitative NFL data since week 1 of the 2018 season, the Chiefs rank is just more evidence that aliens built the Pyramids.

Cohort B: Colleague Dependent

	GM Team	Homegrown Picks Rank	Efficiency Rank	Composite Rank
GM Name
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah	Vikings	9	3	4
John Schneider	Seahawks	5	7	5

Still in the top five. That alone indicates these front offices are doing well. Certainly, Schneider has done more in the NFL for longer than Adofo-Mensah. But both rankings are highly dependent on the contribution of predecessors and colleagues.

4. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, Vikings

Adofo-Mensah’s tenure is marked by flashy numbers in a short amount of time. The Vikings contribution from draft picks is ranked 9 but they have won a lot of games the past three seasons and are thus the third most efficient team. By Adofo-Mensah’s own admission his drafts have been amateur so it’s not his players are getting the snaps. Additionally, in defiance to transaction costs, he is hyperactive in trades because the halo effect has him thinking he can value players like securities. Rick Spielman was his predecessor from 2016 to 2021. There are a lot of losing seasons in that span but the fact remains Spielman’s picks currently get snaps. Adofo-Mensah should for sure get credit for hiring head coach Kevin O’Connell. O’Connell obviously adds a ton of value. Impossible to say where the Vikings would be without Spielman and O’Connell.

5. John Schneider, Seahawks

Unclear on the true dynamics that led to head coach Pete Carroll’s departure after the 2023 season. There are multiple narratives. But it’s clear Carroll had final say with Seahawks and the extent to which that affected the drafts is also unclear. No doubt Carroll and Schneider collaborated for some super productive drafts, the 2013 title team was all-time. And the Seahawks front office continues to do a phenomenal job. Its contribution from draft picks is ranked 5 and its winning efficiency is ranked 7. There was more success around 2014 than 2024 but they continued to win games and make the playoffs. And it can’t go unmentioned: Schneider absolutely smoked George Paton and the Broncos in 2022 when they traded a pair of concrete goloshes known as Russell Wilson for a full-blown bounty of picks and players.

Cohort C: Duality Bros

	GM Team	Homegrown Picks Rank	Efficiency Rank	Composite Rank
GM Name
Jerry Jones	Cowboys	2	14	6
Howie Roseman	Eagles	10	5	7

Like a peace sign pinned to “born to kill” graffiti, so are Roseman and Jerry. They seem to be the professional complement of each other, especially when it comes to achieving things in the twenty-first century. The Cowboys have won a lot of games but the only banners that hang in Jerry’s facility read 90’s or “division.” Roseman, a front office chimney sweep left to die in he flu on multiple occasions, has three conference titles and two league titles since taking command in 2016.

6. Jerry Jones, Cowboys

It’s so known bordering on cliché what the Cowboys are. Its many layers of dysfunction available upon inspection. But Jerry can draft. His contribution from homegrown picks is ranked 2. And Jerry’s teams win games, just not enough. His efficiency is ranked 14. This begs the question if Jerry is too cheap or too unknowledgeable to do anything other than cart out his wildcatter picks. And are they any good. If his players are actually good, then the prime candidate for the Cowboys perennial underachievement is clearly Jerry’s meddling. To anyone who can read organizational cues, understands a chain of command, has ever had any kind of job on any level, all you have to do is watch Jerry preside over the weekly meeting in the “All or Nothing: The Dallas Cowboys” series to see that for every 1 part of value Jerry adds he subtracts 0.20 part with his Jerrycentrism.

7. Howie Roseman, Eagles

Roseman and Jerry approximately mirror each others ratings. In an immeasurable category, Roseman appears to build his team, not pick at the human fabric on a daily basis. Roseman is certainly on a roll going into 2025. But across his tenure his picks don’t take an overly high percentage of snaps, they are ranked 10. But despite having choppy win totals since 2014, his teams have a high win effeciency, ranked 4. The interpretation is Roseman can build his team with other players. And what he fields wins more than historical expectations project. As it related to Roseman’s tenure, he was always GM-by-name when And Reid was head coach and for 2/3 of Chip Kelly’s tenure. He was removed as GM altogether for the final 1/3 of Kelly’s tenure. He became de facto GM the year Kelly was fired. This is why we reset Roseman’s tenure in 2016.

Cohort D: Nega Kwesi

	GM Team	Homegrown Picks Rank	Efficiency Rank	Composite Rank
GM Name
Brad Holmes	Lions	15	8	8

It should be finally noted that other factors other than GM skill of course affect these ranks. This obviously begins with the players. But it is closely followed by coaching. There exist examples of good coaching overcoming bad drafting (many Mike Tomlin and Bill Belichick teams). This web site doesn’t presume to know what a coach is or isn’t doing right, and therefore what they’re doing at all. But it seems quite clear that Lions coach Dan Campell instills an effective culture. You will recall Campell was and Holmes were hired by Chris Spielman when the Lions reset in 2021.

8. Brad Holmes, Lions

Short tenure worked in Adofo-Mensah’s favor but it works against Holmes. As discussed above, the Vikings were not bereft when they dismissed the head coach and general manger in 2022. Holmes and Cambell have had four seasons together. Preceding their regime was a litany of failure that pretty much goes back generations. Some things appear to have required extrication. In chronological order Holmes won three, nine, 12, and 15 games. Across those years the contribution from homegrown picks was 42, 48, 60, and 58 percent. The reason Holmes ranks low is the low numbers from the first half of his tenure. And even when we consider the extrication years Holmes’s rosters win more games than they should, with a win efficiency ranked 8. The current iteration of the Lions is indeed a success story. And should be considered the archetype for how to properly reset an organization.

Cohort E: Failing Their Quarterbacks

	GM Team	Homegrown Picks Rank	Efficiency Rank	Composite Rank
GM Name
Mike Brown	Bengals	1	19	9
Brandon Beane	Bills	20	2	10

9. Mike Brown (with Duke Tobin), Bengals

It’s the Brown family show in Cincinnati. A team owned not by a business great but by heirs. Tobin likely does a lot of the work, and some drafts have been good, but it’s hard to imagine he has much final say. It seems quite clear what the Bengals are up to. Make the coaches play the draft picks. Skimp on the head coach, but make it a cush gig, so they don’t push back. If the picks are good the team does well. If they’re not the team does poorly. For the draft picks that end up being good, stonewall them on big contracts. Play games with contracts and mostly let good players walk. Sign damaged free agents for a discount. Muddy the waters for blame, keep the cycle going. This does seem to be an improvement from the Bengals of yore. When Brown presided over a multi-generational punchline. But a big problem arises when you luck into an extreme quarterback talent like Joe Burrow. The Bengals easily get the most contribution from homegrown picks. They are ranked first. But these guys don’t win much. They’ve averaged less than nine wins since Burrow arrived in 2020. Pre-Burrow was the most recent disaster of 4, 2, 6, 7, and 6 wins. (Preceded by a nice streak of 10-plus wins under head coach Marvin Lewis from 2012 to 2015.) This is why they rank third worst in efficiency. And Burrow is left to squeeze blood from a turnip. Alas, this is the Mike Brown way. Going to be sad watching Burrow’s great talent get sucked into the Brown family event horizon.

10. Brandon Beane, Bills

Like Brown, Beane has an all-world quarterback. Also like Brown, Beane isn’t doing enough. His rankings are basically Brown’s flipped. The contribution from his picks is ranked next to last. And so the Bills have had to go and sign players. But they win a ton of games and their efficiency is ranked second. Beane deserves some credit for finding undrafted players and keeping the roster proficient. But we all know the fate of the Bills, as it’s currently constructed, rests with Josh Allen. Head coach Sean McDermott likely deserves some credit for getting the signed players up to the task of contributing. But anyone with eyes knows that the greatest obstacle for the Bills in high pressure situations is McDermott and his tactical inabilities. It is the responsibility of Beane to remove this contradiction: a good coach who is ultimately outmatched in game situations. And yet they keep carting out the same insufficient roster helmed by the same insufficient coach. While Allen is all-word he is also all-volatility. As great as he is the man can go buck wild at times. In these instances it’s incumbent upon his roster and coaches to make up the difference. This does not happen. Meanwhile Allen reels in the years.

Cohort F: Chris Carter’s “Pray”

	GM Team	Homegrown Picks Rank	Efficiency Rank	Composite Rank
GM Name
Les Snead	Rams	8	11	11
John Lynch	49ers	11	12	12
Mickey Loomis	Saints	18	6	13
Chris Ballard	Colts	6	18	14
Jason Licht	Buccaneers	7	17	15
Chris Grier	Dolphins	21	10	16

And old NFL Films clip caught audio of some DB calling Chris Carter an old man. Carter tells the guy something like “When you get on your knees and say your prayers tonight pray you can play as long as me.” This is a seasoned cohort, other GMs should be so fortunate. Snead has been GM for 10 years, Lynch six, Loomis 24 (haha), Ballard eight, Licht 12, and Grier nine. There are more and less seasoned GMs elsewhere in the rankings. But this lukewarm collection coagulates at the top of the bottom half of 22 ranked GMs.

11. Les Snead (with KSE), Rams

Snead is known for disparaging the concept of draft picks but across this data window his game-weighted average of contribution from homegrown picks ranks relatively high at 8. And he has positive efficiency, ranking 12. But we all know, qualitatively, Snead is a top 10 GM. Probably higher. It’s just that by the numbers Snead gets pushed down because in the data window he has six 10-plus win seasons. But also seasons with 5, 9, 4, 7, and 6 wins. So his efficiency is poor, ranking 12. He has a title. Presumably he drove the hiring of a value-add head coach in Sean McVay. And for Snead, it’s important to remember his employer. Stan Kroenke and Kroenke Sports Entertainment (KSE). KSE is not a cheap owner, per se. But they tend to spend in cycles. It seems like they invest in a title push, maybe even overspend for one, then they hit some kind of apex and retreat to focus instead on tallying gate receipts and cashing revenue share checks. Patrons of KSE’s other teams can confirm. Both its NBA and NHL teams have recent titles (Nuggets and Avalanche). Both have generational talents (Nathon McKinnon and Nikola Jokic). And for both, KSE’s spend receded after the big win. Too bad for the Rams, who also have a generational talent in quarterback Mathew Stafford. Too bad for Snead’s and McVay’s performance record. It’s left to them to draft and develop (which they have done well!) until KSE feels the time is right. Dynasties don’t appear to be KSE’s thing.

12. John Lynch (with Kyle Shannahan), 49ers

Obviously it’s Kyle’s program. Lynch seems like a smart guy but it’s hard to imagine knew how to use a computer much less know where to begin and an NFL GM when Shannahan brought him on. Not to be too cynical but one has to imagine the partnership works out because Lynch is amenable to going down to the sidelines and getting on camera for big wins but ultimately doing things according to the head coach. This includes trading three first round picks, one an exchange, and a third rounder for the opportunity to draft quarterback Trey Lance in 2021. (Actually not a bad strategy! Check the record, there were still plenty of high picks in the talent pipeline the years those first rounders were gone.) Since 2017 the 49ers have drafted some great players. Those teams were fun to watch and made title runs. We certainly appreciate the draft-trade-signing approach. And it has mostly worked out. They are basically right at the median for percentage of snaps taken by homegrown picks. And their efficiency is positive. But there are just too many bad seasons in the lookback for John Lynch. He has seasons of 12, 13, 10, and 13 wins. But also 6, 6, 4, and 6 wins. By the numbers that inconsistency pushes him to the middle of the rankings.

13. Mickey Loomis, Saints

Wow man next time a delusional undergrad tells you they’re going into pro sports have them look up Loomis. Loomis deserves your high five simply for being here. A generation on! Clearly the Saints peaked with Sean Payton’s teams. In this data window Loomis only has 10-plus wins four times and those were Payton teams. Payton wins the with-me without-me debate. Loomis sits down here at 13 mostly because he doesn’t draft well. Near the bottom at 19. These teams, however, outperform which leads to high efficiency. Loomis deserves credit for filling the gaps with talent. But ultimately his draft success is so low he can’t get out of the quagmire created by a broken talent pipeline.

14. Chris Ballard, Colts

Ballard’s draft picks get a lot of playing time. Especially in 2024 when his homegrown picks got over 70 percent of the snaps. And Ballard has some all-pro picks on his record. The problem is these teams don’t win. In eight seasons he has two 10-plus win seasons. There are two 4-win seasons in there. Which is why his efficiency is near the bottom at 19. There is no quarterback. There have been super weird coaching issues. Josh McDaniels with the full-on Heisman. Jeff Saturday making all onlookers question if they’ve been Rip Van Winkled through time and space. Quite fair to ask if Ballard’s picks are a) any good and/or b) if a stipulation of taking the head coach job is you must play Ballard’s guys. Because they aint winning many games.

15. Jason Licht, Buccaneers

At first glance Licht is just like Ballard. Pretty much the same rankings: draft picks play, they don’t win enough games for that percentage. But we can set Licht’s record a little more straight. Before Tom Brady his teams were trash. From 2014 to 2019 they won 2, 6, 9, 5, 5, and 7 games. But from 2020 to 2024 he wins 11, 13, 8, 9, and 10 games making the playoffs every year. And of course he won the title in Bradys first year in 2020. Licht deserves high praise for the quality of the roster in 2020. Homegrown picks got 60 percent of the snaps that year and they won 11 games. The next year they won 13 games and homegrown picks got 59 percent of the snaps. Plus we could just see with our eyes how talented those rosters were. Especially the defense when it beat Patrick Mahomes down in the 2020 title game. We should also note signing quarterback Baker Mayfield in 2023 and making the playoffs the past two seasons. It hasn’t always been good with Licht. But it’s been good recently.

16. Chris Grier, Dolphins

Grier is the worst drafter in the NFL. He’s been GM for nine years. Across this span his contribution from homegrown picks mostly sits around 35 to 45 percent. There is a 55 percent somewhere in there. In 2024 his picks got 28 percent of the snaps. On a relative basis that is quite low. Alas, Grier’s efficiency is middle of the pack because his teams win some games. Which is all that matters. Grier is either a bad drafter or he doesn’t care. Either way he appears to add value. He wins more games than his draft success would indicate which means he could be obtaining nice talent through trades and signings. We know this to be true of the Dolphins. There is a question of when Grier was hired as GM and when he actually took control. But since 2016 the Dolphins have made the playoffs three times and won 10-plus games four times. Additionally, at least before the bloom isn’t fully off the rose, head coach Mike McDaniel appears to be a very risky but successful hire.

Cohort G: Notably Squirrelly

	GM Team	Homegrown Picks Rank	Efficiency Rank	Composite Rank
GM Name
Terry Fontenot	Falcons	12	19	17
Andrew Berry	Browns	19	14	18
Joe Schoen	Giants	13	21	19

These guys have been doing some weird stuff out in public.

17. Terry Fontenot (with Rich McKay), Falcons

What can be said about the guys that didn’t hire Bill Belichick that hasn’t been said already? For whatever reasons it was decided in the 2024 offseason that Belichick was not the guy. As it relates to things like job security and prestige, seems pretty obvious why the guys passed. There was also the decision in the fateful 2024 offseason to sign quarterback Kirk Cousins to a huge free agent deal then draft another quarterback in the first round. It didn’t look like they knew what they were doing then. And it doesn’t look like they know what they are doing now, as Cousins continues to languish on the roster in the 2025 offseason. The Falcons get meaningful contribution from their picks. They are ranked middle of the road. But they simply don’t win any games and their efficient ranking is next to last. Lots of factors as it relates to winning, of course. But certainly it looks like there is leadership rot in the building as the old and new school NFL professionals seem to prioritize turf over team building.

18. Andrew Berry (with Jimmy Haslem), Browns

How’d you like to have Jimmy Haslem tell you what to do every day? Yikes. Haslem is well documented as one of the squireliest people in the NFL. Kind of no surprise then when he made Andrew Berry make the worst trade in NFL history. Once more with meaning: Berry traded three first-round picks, a third-round pick, and two fourth-round picks to the Texans for quarterback Deshaun Watson in March 2022. Berry then signed Watson to a five-year $230 million fully guaranteed contract. Hindsight suggests Watson’s career was probably over when those scandals began to materialize in 2021. The trade has obviously buried the Browns. And Watson’s contract rippled through the league. Just another chapter in Haslem’s cellar dwelling reign. One could say Berry can’t draft. He is ranked 20 out of 22. But he traded away his talent pipeline. He has two 11-win seasons, indeed. But the other three seasons include 3, 7, and 8 wins.

19. Joe Schoen, Giants

In an unfortunate incident for everyone involved, HBO produced “Hard Knocks: Offseason with the New York Giants” in 2024. The most glaring items weren’t the hindsight things. For example, running back Saquon Barkley had an epic season and won a title with a division rival in a neighboring city. That happens to some degree every year with all teams. The concerning part was the blatant discombobulation. Like, Joe Schoen, you must know Barkley is gone when you tell him to go find a number and get back to you. That couldn’t have been a realistic plan. And so it looks like you’re just placating your employer when he stops by to ask you WTF. When Shoen was asking the defensive coordinator and head coach their thoughts on high profile free agents it looks like those questions shouldn’t have to be asked. Like don’t you know what the defense is running and the personnel required? At one point the GM and head coach were literally doing an internet search of recent first round quarterbacks when the Giants are clearly in need of one. You don’t know this verbatim? The draft room looked like a collection of warring factions as the GM was repeatedly interrupted and different centers of gravity within ownership seemed to be patronized by satellite staff currying favor. And for godsakes Brian Daboll, take your feet off the furniture when you’re in meetings. The guy lounges around the office like the King of Surly. Shoen has drafted somewhat well. His picks have played 50, 57, and 53 percent of the snaps in his three years. But they’ve won 9, 7, and 3 games. That puts Schoen dead last in efficiency. Which raises the question of pick quality. An inauspicious early tenure for Shoen in New York.

Cohort H: The Million Dollar Gym Teachers

	GM Team	Homegrown Picks Rank	Efficiency Rank	Composite Rank
GM Name
George Paton	Broncos	17	16	20
Nick Caserio	Texans	22	15	21
Ryan Poles	Bears	16	22	22

“There are no geniuses in our business. We’re all P.E. majors coaching P.E. majors.” – Jim Fassel

20. George Paton, Broncos

No current football professional’s presence is as much a wonder to the world as Paton’s. A barely mitigated disaster whose continued employment is a daily insult to working professionals who actually face performance reviews. Paton’s obvious seismic blunder was the Russell Wilson trade in March 2022. In which Pete Carroll and John Schneider absolutely pantsed Paton then paddled his professional backside purple for all to see. And it wasn’t just that Wilson was useless and weird and won only 11 games in two seasons. It was the decimated talent pipeline when Paton sent the Seahawks a bounty of draft picks and legitimate NFL starters. (Every single man counts, even the slightly above average starters under contract. It’s one less person to draft or overpay.) The Broncos talent pipeline is just now catching up in 2025 from the 2022 yardsale. It was also the obliterated salary cap because Paton, with two years remaining on Wilson’s contract, redid Wilson’s deal to put his comp in line with the best QBs in the league. And he did this before Wilson ever took a snap as a Bronco! When head coach Sean Payton finally threw his hands up and cut Wilson, the 2024 and 2025 dead cap charges were and are $53 and $32 million. Seriously dude are you freaking kidding me? Lest we forget Paton’s handpicked head coach and margarita bestie that lasted all of 15 games in 2022. The indomitably bizarre Nathaniel Hackett. An offensive specialist so incompetent he couldn’t get the plays in on time. To the extent the Denver crowds had to start counting down the play clock to help him avoid yet another delay of game penalty. It’s also more bad contracts (Cortland Sutton, Tim Patrick). It’s the odd draft day trades (moving up to the second round to draft 35th overall a running back who didn’t produce ). Yes, of the draft picks he didn’t send to the Seahawks, some hit. But he’s ranked 18 in contribution from homegrown picks so it’s not highly material. And what he’s signed that he couldn’t draft hasn’t been good because he’s ranked 18 in efficiency. Paton himself signed a guaranteed six-year deal in 2021. He’s literally made millions of dollars in compensation being straight up atrocious at his job.

21. Nick Caserio, Texans

It was so bad at the onset of Caserio’s tenure in 2021 that it’s unclear if he was tanking. Rebuild with high draft picks and jettisoned contracts until he scored a quarterback. He had a quarterback, though, when he first arrived. Very strange circumstances surrounding the timing of Deshaun Watson’s scandals and his trade requests. But Caserio was able to dump Watson for a hysterical haul. The 10 years preceding Caserio weren’t a disaster. There were six playoff appearances and four 10-plus win seasons. Then Caserio shows up and wins four and three games in his first two seasons. He fired two one-year head coaches. (Were these guys just stand-ins?) Certainly things changed when he hired DeMeco Ryans. And when they drafted quarterback CJ Stroud. Since then they have won 10 games and made the playoffs each year. However, while not definitively bad at his job, it’s clear Caserio can’t draft. His contribution from homegrown picks have been 30, 30, 34, and 40 percent. His game-weighted average ranks dead last. He’s had plenty of picks (thanks in part to the Haslems) to remake the roster with high draft picks but—on the whole—it hasn’t happened. We note that considering those abysmal draft numbers he is still ranked 16 in efficiency. Meaning what Caserio hasn’t drafted he has made up with signings. The Texans appear to have improved with Ryans and Stroud as key personal. But Caserio’s drafts need to actually add value. Especially before it’s time to make Stroud’s contract on par.

22. Ryan Poles (with Kevin Warren), Bears

Always hard to tell what the pie chart of responsibility looks like from the outside looking-in. But it’s clear Bears team president and CEO Kevin Warren affects that distribution. Warren is a highly accomplished professional with deserved acclaim–he weighs in. We can also surmise through a long history of failure and mediocrity that ownership somehow manages to negatively affect the football professionals in the building. Surveying Poles’s moves the Bears should be doing a lot better. Instead of writing large contracts he’s exchanged high profile players for picks that worked out. And credit is due—even if somewhat lucky—for the Bears getting the Caleb Williams pick in 2024. But in his nascent tenure his contribution from homegrown picks has been 50, 52, then 42 percent. This is ranked towards the bottom at 17, not alarming. But we should definitely see this percentage increasing, most alarming. The crux of the situation, however, is the Bears lose a lot of games. And so Poles’s efficiency is dead last. Poles has won 3, 7, and 5 games. And he hired head coach Matt Eberflus who he had to fire mid-season in 2024. The Bears are very much like the Texans with key people in key positions and Poles needs to make hay while Williams in on his inexpensive rookie deal. But most importantly, Bears leadership needs to get out of their own way. There is no excuse for a major market team, no matter the professional league, to be this bad. Most of the time it means ownership is more interested in tallying gate receipts and cashing revenue-share checks than winning.